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Prediction for CME (2013-03-15T06:54:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-03-15T06:54Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/121/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T05:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.33
Dst min. in nT: -132
Dst min. time: 2013-03-17T21:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-03-17T00:00Z
Prediction Method: Other (ips.gov.au)
Prediction Method Note:

(Arrival Prediction by IPS duty forecaster Matt/David Neudegg, submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
On Mar 15, 2013, at 10:34 PM, David Neudegg wrote:
Hi Dave
IPS duty forecaster Matt posted this in the daily report
http://www.ips.gov.au/pipermail/ips-dsgr/2013-March/004646.html
A halo CME was observed in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO 
coronagraphs. Combined with STEREO coronagraph imagery, analysis 
suggests that the main part of the CME appears to be directed 
to the east and north, however a significant amount of the material 
is likely directed towards the Earth. This is expected to arrive 
late on the 16th of March or early on the 17th UT.
He's gone for Ap=60 on 17th which is brave. SWPC has Ap=37. I'd estimate 40-50.
Looks like it will be a fairly solid hit. In LASCO looks like mostly to NE but in ENLIL most plasma
density looks NW of Earth. Either way looks like we will get hit by centre 1/3rd of the front.
ENLIL shows arrival ~20UT 16th.
Cheers
Dave N
IPS, Sydney

Lead Time: 29.97 hour(s)
Difference: 5.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-03-15T23:30Z

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